Our 5 Tips for the Grand Final
Five outside punts for the final
Spain e/w to win Eurovision (21 with Unibet)
Ukraine are favorites to win Eurovision and we know the reasons why. Maybe they are legitimate favourites but they are too short given it is folk rap and despite everything isn't getting the biggest reaction in the arena or in any polling anywhere.
I can nominate any of the betting top 4 as options that should do well jury and televote and can get to the magic 500 mark with a fair wind.
Today for best value I'll pick out Spain as the Spanish number brought the absolute house down at the jury final and nothing else looks anywhere near pop perfection this year. Spain was 5th with EuroJury and this performance is much better and deserves a top 4 place.
2. Iceland to finish last (20 with Betsson)
Germany are way too short at Evens to be last in the song contest, and the spoken word minute in the middle was mesmerising in the jury final and will surely get enough points to escape 25th place.
Looking through the list there are other obvious jury songs (Switzerland and Belgium) that will probably score randomly somewhere to escape.
Romania (12 with Smarkets) is value here as Moldova and Spain will take the loyal points we assume but I'm naming Iceland at 20s too as this is too anonymous in a Grand Final to get in anybody's top 10.
3. Serbia to win the televote (126 with William Hill)
*Should be Ukraine* but if you doubt that and want a wildcard let me suggest Serbia. Drawn late, In Corpore Sano has the most YouTube views of all (yes, including Ukraine) after the semi finals. While we think that is just Balkan traffic, the avant-garde nature and amazing draw (24th from 25) means if an odd ball was to come through the pack it would be this one.
Despite these stats Serbia is still available at 2.38 to win best Balkan (i.e. Beat Greece and Romania) and that seems the likely outcome with a jury heavy Grand Final not helping Greece pick up enough points there
2. Italy to beat the United Kingdom (2.2 At Betfair Exchange)
You have probably heard us hyping up the UK like crazy on the podcast but I need to give a pinch myself moment here.
The jury final performance as I saw it was worse than what we saw on Wednesday night (not significantly before anybody panics) and there is the lingering doubt that people voting for the UK don't exist in droves unlike others.
Unlike Italy. Italy is a nation with guaranteed voting support this year from juries with the classy 'Brividi' and is a nation that consistently picks up televotes more than I and many others would expect.
If you think the UK hype train is too much then offset that by backing the most safe song of all in the competition that is guaranteed as we see it to be in there or about at the end.
Remember the consensus on the UK in the community is that it is landsliding the jury vote which is hyperbolic to predict the views of 200 people to such accuracy.
France to be worst big 5 at 7.5 (Unibet)
You've heard me sing Germany's praises before and all of that applies here. The last place in the big 5 market is a clash between France and Germany.
The French number is buried early in the running order and all season I've had this on that I struggle to place either sneaking top 5 or heading to the bottom.
While I still have that doubt about how well France can deliver or not this is not peaking at the right time and as cool as Breton world music trance bops are they are also a genre of unknown appeal.
Late in the running order I'd ignore this market but at this price this early in the show I think there is something here. If you think Germany is doomed then an alternative is France not top 15 (not much liquidity in those markets on he exchange though)
Enjoy the show and we will be back next season!