MGP Heat 4 Run Down
It’s almost like the folks at NRK know Melodifestivalen is starting this week and that most Eurovision fans will be watching the other channel, as heat 4 of Melodi Grand Prix offers little excitement. I am certain that none of these are in the mix for MGP victory, which is increasingly looking like a TIX vs KEiiNO showdown with Raylee creeping up on the outside.
Odds on with some bookies are Landeveiens Helter with Alt Det Der. It’s nice enough with a toe-tapping rhythm, but others nothing original in this dad-rock number. It’s odds on with most because of the relatively big name artists, including Staysman who was part of the excellent En Godt Stekt Pizza from 2015.
This lacks all the attitude of that number, and is relying on the big name appeal or something big on stage. Can’t hear that from the music. In a four song heat I’d reckon this would be safe, but in a duel people may vote against this if it is just too pedestrian. Don’t accept the odds on - the 3s offered by Cool Bet are more sensible.
At this point it is worth saying that, if you are able to access all the variety of betting websites already offering odds (CoolBet, ComeOn, Betsson) then you will be able to get an overround of under 100% on this show, meaning it is possible to guarantee a profit with the correct staking. This isn’t unusual, and it really pays off to be quick into these entertainment markets as the bookies can be far off each other's predictions when they first set odds.
The big movement of the day was KiiM, notably 3rd place in Idol, but that nearly 15 years ago. His ballad My Lonely Voice is nice, if not groundbreaking, but allows space for a good vocal to shine and for that reason alone I happily invested when Betsson placed it at 7s this morning. That has now dropped to 4s and could very well rival the dad rockers to favourite nearer in the week. I note there isn't a true ballad in the final, and NRK may like this in to draw 2nd in that show.
It’s hard for me to write much complimentary about the other two, who I consider to be near chanceless. Pages is a dull pop track that includes jolking in a way that only reminds me of just how seamlessly KEiiNO perform this art. Indeed, is their inclusion just a reminder to the voting public that KEiiNO deserve to beat TIX in the final? This has drifted from being the early second favourite to 6s with Betsson.
Finally there’s the song Circus by Royane. Now, I can’t stand the style, so be a little worried about my bias here, but there’s an arrogance about the audio and the character playing the role that seems incredibly good at putting off people from voting for it. As long as 10s with ComeOn.