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MGP Heat 3 Run Down

Updated: Feb 1, 2021

It’s time for the third heat of Norway’s Melodi Grand Prix. Podcast listeners will have seen Raylee was my tip for last week meaning I am very relieved to be up already this early in the Eurovision season.

Raylee’s win was expected, and shortened during last week, however Raylee’s performance and Flashdance inspired gimmick were amazingly executed. In-play I don’t think I had ever saw a more dead cert winner of a heat than her performance and I managed to get a squeeze a bit more profit even at 1.3 on the Betfair exchange during the superfinal against Daniel Owen.

This week sees a more even field and you could throw a blanket across all of them. Favourite at this stage (shortest price 2.32 with CoolBet - Norwegian customers only, expect Unibet and 888 Sport to offer odds more globally soon) is Emmy with Witch Woods, an incredibly quirky little Halloween flavoured pop ditty. I was hoping that odds makers would have put this 20-year-old visual communication student at longer odds, but alas.

The Taylor Swift comparison I’ve heard a few times today is fair, but to work on stage this will need the Taylor Swift scale of production and gimmick factor. The music is written for a big show performance, but Emmy has promised in interviews today only dancers and a throne. There may be more she can’t yet reveal, but this song needs the visual to work to get votes. Too many unknowns until the night to recommend at near even money.

The general second favourite is Big Daddy Karsten (best priced 4.0 with Norsk Tipping), self-proclaimed gay rapper who’s been on the Pride circuit for some time now. I think his entry Smile is all just a little too pedestrian for the energy it tries to deliver and while lyrically amusing, this will go over the heads of many.

I’m keeping more of an eye on third favourite Ole Hartz (4.0 with ComeOn and CoolBet, but a small amount if available at 5.3 on the Smarkets Exchange at the time of writing). Part Irish fiddle, part football chant, and perhaps a joyous remedy to a country that has just started another pandemic-fuelled lockdown. Ole has promised a big stage show, and I am very much of the opinion that this contest, in this year, has way more votes for gimmicks and charisma than ever before.

Finally I was a touch surprised that last year’s Idol entrant Dinaye has drifted to be the outsider in this heat (7.0 widely available), with Own Yourself sounding every bit the Melfest show opener and app friendly piece of pop. Not breaking any new ground here, but the level of music production is nice enough and I reckon a live performance could lift it. A tight dance routine and some excellent vocals could put it in the mix, but it needs lifting to sparkle.

I do like the Emmy song a lot (that's staying on my playlist post-contest), but I have too many question marks about how it will appear as a live show to back it. I took the value above Ole Hartz above 5.0 for this week’s podcast tip, noting he is signed by Warner Music, suggesting investment behind him, and a smile to melt everybody’s hearts. That might be sufficent.

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