MGP Final Betting Review
With Jorn managing to make it through the meaningless Last Chance round in Norway’s Melodi Grand Prix, we know now all twelve songs taking part on Saturday. Betting odds were revealed this morning (Tuesday), so let’s take a look.
Generally speaking the favourites are KEiiNO, and for the past couple of weeks KEiiNO have been trading at odds on with the Exchange markets that opened earlier. Some bookies are holding out for longer odds (ComeOn again the largest outlier at 7s - stakes are limited but that is the bet of the season there) but I suspect we will settle just under evens as the week progresses.
I do love Monument, and while it is a piece of music that feels purpose-written for the Song Contest in moments, it is very well done and so that’s also the element I enjoy. I note they have been pushing to get international fans to vote for them which may help to get them over the line - and international noise for KEiiNO is bigger than domestically.
The domestic noise is for Tix. Now as much as I love Monument's shameless and unapologetic Eurovision-friendly style, Tix's attempt at the same feels contrived . That said he is a bigger star and far more popular on streaming services. While I’m cautious in this claim I’m reasonably confident he can’t win it. That’s because Norway will have a superfinal for the final 4, and then the final 2, and whoever is against the brash Tix in any hypothetical final should expect massive support from neutrals to take them to Eurovision. Best price at 8s if you disagree. The promised switch to English for the final I actually think will lose him voters rather than gain them.
I agree with the market that behind these two come Raylee, Rein Alexander and Imerika. I was impressed with Imerika’s style and staging last week, and while my personal taste is that the song misses the mark for what it is trying to produce, I recognise the potential and that Imerika was a likeable performer. 9s with Betsson is fair, but it may drift further as the others get the hype and also might be too dark for 2021 amongst this crowd.
Raylee doesn’t have this darkness issue and the Flashdance-throwback performance gives the most iconic visual moment of the entire NF season. This is one for the casual fan and I think this might be in the mix with a late running order if the middle is full of many of the dull pre qualified songs. There is 30 available on CoolBet which is well worth trying to get, but otherwise head over to either the Betfair Exchange or Smarkets where there are double figures available.
Rein Alexander had me saying ‘he wins’ just 20 seconds into his performance on Saturday as the final pre-qualified act. It went downhill from there as the chorus just wasn’t quite on point and the dance routine was only brilliant for short moments. What a voice he has though and this would be a respectable Eurovision entry should it get there. I don’t know if they get any chance to tighten the performance up but it may just need that on Saturday to hit top 4. 10s with CoolBet.
I could see both Jorn and Blåsemafian shocking and squeezing into the top 4 with a decent running order, but I suspect NRK will sacrifice both of these. Time will tell and a running order may move the market even more than it did this morning. KEiiNO should be favourite but I think to confirm victory KEiiNO need to have worked on all the details of their non-existent staging from their first performance and make something as cinematic as their music is. If so it’s a clear victory. If it’s another KEiiNO staging misfire there’s plenty worthy contenders who can capitalise.
If watching live remember as well the Eurovision win market. A KEiiNO win, especially if the stage show is brighter and bolder, could see them temporarily hitting favourite status. A Tix win sees Norway go three digits overnight.