Melodifestivalen Win Market Tips
Couple of quick thoughts on this before the new season starts with the song reveals to press on Wednesday at 1000 CET. I will be listening, follow me on Twitter @bensvision for the love reveals each week. I've been quite brash in my put downs of Melfest 2022 so far. On paper from the 28 artists there is nothing that smells like an ESC winner. There are acts looking to have a Spotify hot, or to 'show a new side of themselves' that always gets punters nervous. Sweden has been trading around 14/15 to win Eurovision and I can't see a single act here who could possibly win Melfest and cause that price to shorten. Some highlight the retirement of Christer Björkman from Melfest duty as a huge step change in strategy. Yet Karin Gunnarsson has been at SVT for years now and the list of acts in Melfest 2022 doesn't show any strategic change of direction What I will note is the slight change in voting system announced last week. More on that via ESC Insight later but the headline for trading is that they will announce an act who wins each heat, rather than two qualifying directly. From a trading point of view this means the market will be turgid, with those winning each heat shortening while those that finished 2nd will drift and see a drop in momentum. Important if you are betting in the outright to bet on the winner of the heat, otherwise you should wait for better value when they don't qualify direct. The international juries in the final, and the fact that one can app vote again after the international juries in that show, means one can win from apparently left field via that route. My stats note that acts who 'won' the heat who now lose the semi include Anna Begendahl in 2020 and John Lundvik in 2019. Acts that predominantly get most support from older voters don't get first place.
Win market candidates for me start with Robin Bengtsson (8s generally available). Not a name or style (arena pop rock) that excites me but he is an artist who charms the camera, has a loyal fanbase and can appeal to the juries in the final. In it to win it for sure, but getting first in the heat is the drama to keep up momentum. Drawn last in heat 1, like Loreen and Benjamin Ingrosso were. Heat 1's other win candidate is Omar Rudberg, who we all keeping getting told is really big after being on Netflix's Young Royals. I think Omar is an excellent artist who should have done better with his previous solo performance. English language pop is promised, he is a great performer and he can again his both jury and televote in the final. Best price 29s with Svenska Spel won't last if the press like it.
Semi 2 isn't about John Lundvik. He will struggle with this possibly preachy Swedish language song. Liamoo has record label push and very likely to get that top spot here. He is talked about as being someone who will win Melfest one day.. the question is if now is the time. 11s available Semi 3 lacks an obvious winner candidate. Anders Bagge should qualify but the expectation is that international juries will kill whatever he has in the final. Look for somebody up the rails here but no obvious recommendations from myself. Semi 4 has Klara Hammarström as early favourite for the entire thing. Klara is popular and likely has a catchy hit but I think for her to be considered a top tier winner candidate she'll need something way better than her last two entries have proved. As favourite Klara is around 7s which is a high price for a favourite even at this stage
What I can note is that there has been huge sums of money placed on the Betfair exchange on the unknown Angelino. At odds as low as 10s. Now the Aftonbladet team on their podcast have speculated that is because those who need to hear the songs (radio companies etc) think it may be one to watch. Maybe in part. I also think it is people like you and me looking through the list of 28, realising there are no standout, and looking for who can be a breakout like Ace Wilder or Frans was. We are expecting a piano pop ballad, and that can be dangerous with old, young and juries, but throwing 10s down on someone with such little stage presence I can't advise on hearsay. Rather than the next Frans it could be the next Paul Rey, who was similarly talked up. It's a weak year overall and it feels somewhat fraudulent to give a tip as simple as Robin Bengtsson and Liamoo to come through in this field. Angelino too but that's because of other's betting patterns rather than my intuition. Outsiders I would watch include Samira Manners (51) and Medina (41), though the impression the latter has is that they are here to be rather than to compete. I also assume one of the three rock numbers will be good, but it's hard to guess who that would be. Unlikely to get jury support at any rate, though we would love to see it.