Melodi Grand Prix Win Market Tips
MGP this year released all songs at once and with that came a drift in the market, starting at 17/24 but at time of writing 22/34. There are few big names compared to last year and it seems little competition in the line up. I agree with statements that the bottom end is better today but there are few standouts.
The majority of fans and punters are in agreement that Elsie Bay is the one to beat. The Ellie Goulding does Bond thing does echo what Victoria did last year for Bulgaria and is head and shoulders above the rest for quality here.
Question mark here about the televote appeal here, especially as MGP has an app vote that tends to mean safer songs or bigger artists overperform, but 2-1 is a price that will likely shorten. I hope some of you Norwegian readers picked the CoolBet 7-1 on release while it was there. They've had a bad day at the office.
Coolbet lead off with two more uptempo songs in 'Your Loss' and 'Titans' that are both in Semi 3. 'Your Loss' (18s with Smarkets) could do better than many expected with a youthful 2020 Idol winner as the artist, but I would hope the 2000s era pop chick vibe wouldn't pick up more than her tried and tested voting support in a head-to-head with abigger name, although the half-rap effect does give a usp.
Subwoolfer are generally second favourites around the rest of the block. A little bit inexplicitly I must say, but I suspect that's because Ylvis have been gone for a while and people are putting two and two together to get 5s. If it is the creators of 'What Does The Fox Say?' will be *the* question for the rest of the season, but there are logical reasons why these rumours will keep going for weeks and weeks (the one for me is that this is one of the pre-qualified entries). CoolBet hadn't got that memo and originally had this as 50-1 outsider. Oops. Currently best priced still with them at 6s, but 4s or 5s more expected.
Is it in contention, as or as not Ylvis? I'm less sure on that. It's been a while and Ylvis' fans may have moved on in a way they hadn't with Tix. The song has good moments but I think the post chorus and ending are flat, and the music video isn't as smashing as I would expect from them. I will be looking for streaming success or not to decide whether to back or lay (4.7/5 with Smarkets)
On outsiders for a long shot watch two other ballads in case Elsie Bay falters early (she is prequalified to the final but must perform on Saturday's first semi). 'Made of Glass' is 19-1 and is a Kjetil Mørland ballad by numbers, with a great melody but without the show stopping moment that Ukrille had. At least in studio. A jury note in the live show could see this being the smash hit. For wild chances Farida with the song 'Dangerous' had hit 100-1 with CoolBet and does a more than competent job of the female bond feel to rival our favourite.
But it could also be game, set and match if Elsie, to use the phrase, slays on Saturday night. With this all in one release Spotify stats etc will be of interest in coming days to see if something is hot that we don't know about. Keep looking as that will dictate any other market moves.