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Melodi Grand Prix Semi 2 Tips

Maybe the less said about my failed Heat 1 prediction the better.

Or maybe not. You see I know there’s problems in predicting these heats. Firstly the duel system and negative voting therefore. Secondly the free votes which means things more middle-of-the-road still get points above the extremes, and thirdly the fact that there are no snippets of staging or costumes until the show starts.

I knew Trollfest were doomed as soon as they went all pink, and adjusted my position in-play accordingly. They should have performed like the party band they are and not like what they mistakenly think Eurovision is. The same could be said for Mira Craig, and Frode and Eline were the only ones who looked like possible pop stars.

It’s the kind of thing I’d be able to spot at Melfest and why my positions for MGP are very conservative.

This week is also a conservative week. Steffen Jakobsen is generally favourite, and 2.2 is best with Betsson. Steffen’s Instagram caption is that he was 3rd place in Idol 2013. While going far in Idol is a good sign for this show…2013 was a long time ago and clearly his career hasn’t had a highlight since. This is a cheesy schlagerised country number that sounds like an uncool Victor Crone. Styling could be key to this making it and not sounding too pastiche, so I mildly advise.

I’m a little hotter on Farida with ‘Dangerous’, who I managed to get at 6s on release but that is now generally 3.25 but higher odds with the Norwegian bookies available. I suspect the difference here is that we non-Norwegians hear a ballad that has great potential, although not filled with intrigue or creativity as ‘Death of Us’, and the Norwegian bookies see an act who is unknown and therefore unfancied. But if KiiM and Imerika could breeze through their heats last year there is certainly space for this to do something for the masses.

Farida is joined as a contender by Lily Löwe who, with Bad Bady, is bringing some old school rock to the party. I don’t necessarily rate it as a song, but Lily seems charismatic from the one minute we saw at the song reveal and I note that the dedicated music video and plans for an album release that suggests there may be some money behind it for some staging. 4.75 with Betsson not stupid knowing there has been some push here and I hope it doesn’t make it but can’t be discounted as we know too little about the rest.

I have learnt to be a little kinder about the outsider than last week, but that’s easier as Daniel Lucas has a dainty little pop that is a hard sell to perform, but actually is exactly the kind of song that low key stays on my Spotify until next season.

Sorry for the general neutrality on this one, but I’m not really able to tip this one very easily. Farida on song, Steffen on genre and Lily on the record label push.

What I will say though before ending is that in the main Melodi Grand Prix market there have been some movements of interest. Elsie Bay’s performance was fine vocally, but I question the storytelling and the staging concept that made the favourite feel very run-of-the-mill. Time to go back to the drawing board, but that gives Subwoolfer the favourite status at the moment and they perform next week. Look out for something to come up the rails as there’s no guarantee they can perform well either - and ‘Your Loss’ or *Made of Glass’ are ones I’m starting to watch to pull off the upset if Elsie doesn’t attract enough votes for a top 2 spot. Subwoolfer haven't made it viral, despite some popularity, so could be beatable in a head-to-head.

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