Melfest Heat 3 Tips and Predictions
Time for another listen to the Melodifestivalen songs. Last week saw Liamoo with the heat which was the very expected outcome. The general perception is that he is likely to score a high result in the final, but is not likely to be 1st place. That is thought to be Cornelia Jakobs or somebody else coming from these final two heats. John Lundvik also qualified directly to the final, which isn’t a surprise, but he again isn’t expected to be high enough with international juries or voters (especially young ones) to be up in it to win it.
And to this week….
Song 1: Cazzi Opeia - I Can’t Get Enough (BPM: 124)
Cazzi Opeia promised that this would be a hopeful and dreamy love song, and certainly the string instrumentation gives that feel to ‘I Can’t Get Enough’. Indeed my comparison in style is to ‘Glow’ (by Manda, Melodifestivalen 2014) which had a very similar use of strings in its verses, and while one can think Coldplay here the comparison is not quite as strong as that example was. The chorus doesn’t ‘pop’ in the way one expects from a Melfest number, teasing you before the post chorus kicks in for a killer beat that got me wiggling on my sofa.
In terms of predictions this heat is all very hard to say much and I’m having to look at YouTube videos of the acts to give any indication if they can sell this. I think in particular with the app vote being so dominant I think Cazzi is on the borderline of being top 4, unlikely top 2.
Odds around 4s are possibly short unless the performance is wow - this will rely on that so heavily hard to say just on audio.
Song 2: Lancelot - Lyckligt Slut (BPM: 82)
A warm and intimate song here from Lancelot who I understand from news articles in Sweden has only performed live music as a lead artist three times in his career so far. Here’s a nice storytelling vibe to this but it is very sit back in your rocking chair and let the good vibes roll. In that sense it makes excellent dentist waiting room music.
And that isn’t a criticism, but it means that Lancelot’s artistry and connection down the camera is the difference between this getting votes from all age groups or just his core audience. The Swedish press are saying this is dangerous, I’m reserving caution for a live performance, because it could so easily also be wallpaper.
Most bookies have pushed Lancelot odds on which is slightly overgenerous at this stage. In the mix but definite qualifier I can not say at the moment.
Song 3: Lisa Miskovsky - Best To Come (BPM: 140 - Melody feels like 70)
This feels immediately just that touch more Melodifestivalen than one may have thought at first. We know Lisa from her direct to the final entry in 2012 and while this is still going to be a girl with a guitar doing her thing, this isn’t the same at all as ‘Why Start a Fire?’ This feels more country with a chorus that is a little more sing-a-long than that one was. Ironically, think of this as the perfect number to sit around a fire to.
There’s been reports of this feeling anonymous which while I understand I think is unfair to this song - and to Lisa who arguably qualified with something understated last time as well. I think this will resonate with people who are looking for something that feels good and comfortably Melfest in this field, especially the older voters and I would expect 2nd to 4th at the moment in this heat.
Svenska Spel have at 5.5 to go through and while getting the first round votes is impossible for someone aiming for older age groups, getting the 2nd spot is doable and that is a recommended price.
Song 4: Tribe Friday - Shut Me Up (BPM: 203)
Staggered by the high tempo of this and the dirty garage style production that is a throwback to the 90s. It’s a short track at under 2 minutes 30 seconds and runs through the verses and choruses well but perhaps missing out from getting in your face enough to make a difference. It’s a vibe I haven’t seen at Melfest before and I’m all for it…
That is though with the caveat that competitively, if this ends up last in the heat, then that is absolutely fine. I think like others in this heat it is going to be that Je Ne Sais Quoi that is charisma that will decide if it is competitive to go beyond this heat.
16s are available on a huge upset. I don't see this being anything that can upset but if the field isn't the strongest maybe that makes upsets more likely. Your call.
Song 5: Faith Kakembo - Freedom (BPM: 76)
The press in 2020 adored her entry ‘Crying Rivers’, much to the personal astonishment of myself it must be said. This song is more modern and the RnB beat that drives this ballad works well. However I think this is crying out of the diva moment - the jury note, the crescendo, the big finale, that this song needs to shine.
This is again one of those on the cusp, good performance can take it into the Semi Finals, but without a moment it falls out once more. Supposedly the vocals will be live with a choir on stage so if a huge gospel moment comes that could be the trigger to lift this.
Little surprised that this drifted out to 8s with many, I don't think this is significantly worse than expected but like others in the heat this needs a moment to shine.
Song 6: Linda Bengtzing - Fyrfaldigt hurra! (BPM: 150)
Is it schlager? Yes. But not with the exclamation point that the title has and that this song feels it has throughout each line of the lyrics. It is back to the sound that Linda was performing with success at the end of the 2000’s, rather than the failed experiments of the 2010’s, but in direct comparison to those hits is this a half step backwards. What is interesting musically is some of the chord slides through the chorus are surprisingly, but do capture attention.
Schlager can very much do well in this competition still. But it generally needs to be exceptional to do so, and songs like ‘Victorious’ and ‘Möt Mig i Gamla Stan’ still fill dance floors here in Stockholm (one assumes, I’ve not been out clubbing since you know what). This isn’t in the same league and is also in that fight for fourth.
10s available to qualify is not worth touching. If you got 4s on the semi finals that might be worth a punt but the low scoring from younger voters will be a problem Linda will struggle to overcome.
Song 7: Anders Bagge - Bigger Than The Universe (BPM: 124)
If Melfest was to ask Thomas G:Son and Peter Boström, the composers of songs such as Euphoria, to write a song for a Melodifestivalen musical, it would sound like this. It builds for three minutes with inane cliché lyrics and brings in a children’s choir for the sing-a-long finale. Anders Bagge is interesting. He is an infamous Idol judge and has not performed publicly before. He sings well, with plenty of long notes, but his vocal timbre isn’t going to win him many record contracts beyond this one.
We expect that this will qualify from the heat and that will be a success for Anders. In the final I’m fully confident international juries will leave the 54-year-old too far away from his contemporaries to be in the mix and that will be a result that SVT would be more than happy with.
Anders Bagge should win the heat, assuming he can sing and perform this, and the 2.23 with Svenska Spel seems generous for that (they pushed in Lancelot to 2.25 here, hence the swing). Should he significantly shorten post-Saturday there will be room to lay this before the big names come back in for the final and hoover all the jury points.