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Live Blog: Big 5 + Netherlands

Ok, little live blog for the first reveals today of the final six songs. Just saw Iceland on stage as I prepare this and, I'm not as amazed as I was on first showing. Feels like what I said on a previous episode - very Alexander Rybak - very able to win a semi final and stumble in the Grand Final. Won't stumble that badly, and think there'll be huge momentum for Iceland in the western media to drive the price down lower (currently around 9s - I can imagine a crazy world where I wake up one morning and it is 5s).


Malta has done enough to get itself media attention about Destiny's dress, and a more cohesive and planned stage show, to move to favourite. There's half a chance this drifts when France and Italy perform now. Time for the final wild swings of the season.


Italy

Win: 9.6, Top 10: 1.3, Big-5: 2.2

Well Italy come up and despite it only being a Thursday afternoon Måneskin give that some welly. It's proper music and completely uncompromising in style, with the lead singer an arresting figure with his top off. The word going round the place is smoldering.


There's a couple of visual effects, highlighted by a crash to the floor at the end of the song. Let's see if there's anything on the last run through. Vocals are perfectly fine and probably space to go off the melody in true rock fashion on the night.


Slight drift in the market to 10/10.5 as I write. I don't have strong opinions on it, surely it is what was expected and I've not moved my position. Yes, the red screen and the costumes give a sense of jury unfriendlyness, but this was always meant to be a televote hit. No value on any of the markets here, and I think that falls into the category of many of Eurovision's other rock entries (think back to what Turkey used to send) and a 4th place would be par for this. Needs an eagle at the final hole to win.


And on final run through we actually got to see the introduction, with the little bow to the audience very classy and adds credibility value (and also recognition of the Italian langauge will flow well here). Pyro at the end is a full on affair, including the classic pyro curtain, which I'm actually a little surprised by, but it doesn't do damage (far from it, makes it far more Eurovision accessible). Odds moved in accordingly to 8.6/8.8

Germany

Win: 400, Top 10: 8.6, Big-5: 34

This will get an Alf Poier result with the televote. So amateurish in presentation people will love it, can't believe how out of breath he gets towards the end of the song.


I had a wide berth for this because it could fall completely flat, but I think it's goofy enough to do well enough. Question here is if juries have it high enough to be in contention for a top 10, or if it is escaping the bottom 5.


Top 10 price is static. If it goes into the high teens/20s, as the favourite shorten in (as, this isn't winning Eurovision), I think this could be something that would be of interest.

The Netherlands

Win: 920, Top 10: 22, Big-5: n/a

Jeangu has such a natural and warm stage presence and I love the use of the dancer in front of him, breaking free and releasing his inner spirit. Fantastic choice staging wise. The long chorus at the end of the track is not a vote grabber, but it is colourful and thematically on point.


Odd chance for this to be very very good with the juries. Certainly with the Western ones. I'd love to see a decent price for the top 15.

France

Win: 5.4, Top 10: 1.19, Big-5: 1.78

I don't think I heard the same as the rest of the market. Barbara was more stripped back than the national final, and was endearing, but I didn't see what it was that moved Barbara into new favourite status. Noted, my stream died of death so I missed a good 30/45 seconds in the middle, but I didn't see anything from Barbara that she could do or could not do. The end of the song, with the camera sprilling around her, offered nothing new compared to what we already know.


If somebody could tell me what they saw that made Barbara even more fantastic than in the national final, please tell me.


United Kingdom

Win: 390, Top 10: 24, Big-5: 67

Only saw the last minute of this due to stream issues. Two large trumpets on stage and four dancers. James' vocal was rehearsal quality and would hope diction and call-to-action improve.


UK bottom half is expected with that performance, even bottom 5 seems more likely than not. It was all very TV entertainment rather than vote-for-me appeal.


Yes, there is me judging 45 seconds of material

Spain

Win: 1000, Top 10: 50, Big-5: 34


Combination of a toddler around my toes, web stream issues and general apathy to Voy a Quedarme means I'm logging off for tonight early.


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