Benidorm Fest Betting Tips and Review
Haven't said much about the Spanish selection as to be honest it is a minefield.
Benidorm Fest, replicating Sanremo in many ways of elegance, opens all the pitfalls of Sanremo. That includes a voting system that is effectively 75% jury (50% jury and 25% demoscopic jury of viewers at home) which could make anything come through the rails. Plus this week long build up to Saturday allows different acts to gain momentum as the show goes on.
What we do have at this stage, unlike Sanremo, are the song. The top two in the market are 'Terra' and 'Ay Mama', generally trading about 2.5. Both appeal to niche groups, 'Terra' have huge views and hype for their use of the Galician language, and 'Ay Mama' could be very boldly and powerfully girl power on stage.
This is the reason these songs have huge support in their communities. It is also their flaw. There's no guarantee these traits will resonate through the juries or reach out beyond their fan base. Now both songs have good if not great moments, the anthemic culmination to 'Ay Mama' and the power harmonies in'Terra' work well, and are obvious favourites, but the gap to the rest is too large given voting system.
I'm looking through the rest of the list for possible jury contenders. Boy band Unique are unlikely to be that. The two that caught my eye were Varry Brava and Rayden. Not for being typical jury fodder with huge vocals (there's actually a lack of that from this year, at least in studio versions) but for being that type of underground ear worm that could be charismatically performed and grow to be in the mix on Saturday night. I have found their performances and videos so far to be barking up the wrong tree and appearing pastiche rather than cool, but they are most likely to gain momentum if there is any chance of getting noise over the favourites.
What should be said is there is a real probability that Spain hits Eurovision favourite status this week, such is the hype about Benidorm Fest locally (despite some twitter rumblings, the lowest matched price so far was 17.5, higher than Sweden and Italy)
I don't hear an ESC winner in this mix, and there could be value to lay. 'Ay Mama' and 'Terra' have their moments but to get both jury and televote on board internationally would be difficult. If I had to predict I think there's more chance of 'Terra' being the jury choice, and therefore am heavier here, but Spanish juries have a reputation of throwing a curveball and upsetting everyone.
The hard part is finding what will unite their upset.